Soldiers young and old know the rule: you do not oppose a stronger forcer--rather, you let it roll over you, and then you feed off it, piece by piece.
Remnants of the Islamic Courts Union and kind may be doing just that in Somalia this month, hitting key government personnel, landing reinforcements in the north, blowing up African Union and remaining Ethiopian convoys, all to let us know they're not done. [1]
Nahr al-Bared lesson possibly learned: the more time taken to crush a well defined and demarcated enemy, the more opportunity for others to sew chaos elsewhere. [2]
Iraq may beg the question of how much violence may be ascribed to "sectarian strife", so much killing takes place there in a day. [3]
The details tell about the devils everywhere.
In Somalia last week, an estimated 35 al Qaeda fighters slipped into the northern tier of the country in two speedboats, fought with local police, and headed up into the hills. Interim government security communications managed to reach U.S. forces, which then summoned a Navy destroyer to shell gurrilla positions. Opposition body count: six dead, leaving a guestimate of 29 terrorists operating in-country today.
In Nahr al-Bared, the best defense for the aspiring al Qaeda militant proves less worthy, perhaps, and politically better protected populations: the Lebanese Army has accepted the near impossible job of isolating and killing its immediate enemy, Fatah al-Islam, and sparing the Palestinians who chose to remain in the camp rather than get their caboodles out of the line of advance and fire.
While the Lebanese Army methodically moves against Fatah al-Islam, who fully mean to glory in martyrdom, sparks may be going off elsewhere in the country, and it's hard to say right this minute whether they too will turn into the flames that turn streets into rubble and lives into nightmares.
Iraq today?
Iraq has become a monster movie overburdened with blood, dead souls, and hate.
Wherever Iraqi and U.S. forces move, the violence moves out of the way, does it's little dance in the shadows, and floods back in its various guises. The military seldom stands directly opposed: it just rolls over bombs or poses for the occasional (fire and run) RPG.
For sport, the old white hunters brought down their elephants with Enfields and good shots; for business, as all hunting parties know, mutilating and bleeding the animal to death works just as well.
1. Shabelle.Net--work through or back from today's front page: http://www.shabelle.net/news/english.htm.
2. Naharnet, "Militants Open New Warfront to Ease Pressure on Fatah al-Islam in Nahr al-Bared": http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&4750DA79ACF7B5C2C22572E8005BD0BA
3. Reuters AlertNet, security developments for June 3: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/ANW380208.htm.
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